The current global political and trade tensions are causing a lot of uncertainty in the tech industry, especially for iPhone production is moved back to the United States. His analysis suggests that costs could rise dramatically, and the global tech industry could be reshaped in major ways.
Ives focuses on how deeply connected Apple’s supply chain is to Asia, where most iPhones are currently made. He points out that moving even a small part of this complex system would require a huge amount of money. According to his estimates, relocating just 10% of Apple’s supply chain to the U.S. would cost an enormous $30 billion. This massive expense would almost certainly lead to much higher prices for consumers.
Per CNN, Ives predicts that an iPhone made in the U.S. could end up costing an astonishing $3,000. This is far more than the price increases other analysts have predicted due to tariffs alone. Reuters estimates that tariffs could raise prices to over $2,200 with a 40% tariff, and CNET estimates that tariffs would rise by $3,200 if tariffs rose by 104%. A basic iPhone 16e, which starts at $599, could jump to $1,222 in the worst-case tariff scenario. Other models would likely see similar price hikes.
Tech expert predicts soaring prices for iPhone
But Ives’s concerns go beyond just higher prices. He warns of a potential “Armageddon” scenario for U.S. tech. He argues that America’s reliance on Asian manufacturing is key to staying ahead of China in technology. If the supply chain is disrupted by trying to move production too quickly, it could hurt U.S. tech progress and even help China take the lead.
Building new factories would take time—about four to five years—making the challenge even harder. Ives suggests that rushing to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. could have serious long-term consequences.
Other analysts also see big challenges ahead. UBS predicted the iPhone 16 Pro Max could go up by $350, while JPMorgan Chase estimated a 6% global price increase to cover U.S. tariffs. Still, all these estimates show that tariffs and possible factory relocations will put a lot of pressure on Apple and the rest of the tech industry.
These changes could have wide-reaching effects. For consumers, it could mean much more expensive iPhones and other tech products. For Apple, the choices are tough: take on huge costs, raise prices for customers, risk losing sales, or spend years and billions moving production. For the U.S. tech industry as a whole, the decisions made now could shape its ability to compete globally for years.
Published: Apr 8, 2025 11:00 am